Return of history or ex-novo politics? A computational institutionalist perspective on the surge of Vox in Spain and Chega in Portugal

Far-right movements are gaining political prominence across Europe. Do they represent a resurgence of early twentieth-century autocratic regimes, or are they a new phenomenon? The Iberian Peninsula offers a unique opportunity for analysis, with Spain and Portugal transitioning from dictatorships in the 1930s to democracies in the 1970s, and illiberal movements re-entering political institutions in the 2010s. To explore this evolution, this article employs an interdisciplinary approach, combining the analytical strength of history with the practical advantages of computational methods. The analysis reveals that Vox emerged as a reaction to a perceived breakdown of the transition agreements and is driven by a commitment to an exclusionary nationalism resembling that of the Francoist regime. This contrasts sharply with Chega’s lack of connection to Salazarism and its focus on contemporary politics. However, both parties share a common agenda with the global far-right movement on secular issues, particularly in restricting political rights for women and LGBTQI+ identities. The article highlights the importance of considering the historical development of the political system when examining emerging phenomena. It also uses a computational institutionalist approach that could assist other scholars in assessing current political trends.

keywords: iliberal, far-right, Iberia, computational methods, artificial intelligence, large language models